Anthony Bringaze

By Anthony Bringaze

On April 10, 2023, the People’s Republic Army of China completed a 3 day military exercise simulating a conflict with their island neighbor, Taiwan. The small, independent nation, whose history is inexorably linked with the mainland super power, has faced similar aggression and intimidation tactics from China for years. Taiwan is a bustling center of Indo-Pacific trade and, under Chinese law, is formally under jurisdiction of the Chinese government. However, Taiwan operates autonomously from the CCP, the leading political party in China, and conducts foreign and domestic affairs from their capital in Taipei.

China has a vested interest in Taiwanese independence for several reasons. Geographically, Taiwan is part of the Asian first island chain, which includes U.S. allies Japan and the Philippines, and sits nearest the Chinese mainland. As Sino-American relations deteriorate, the CCP views Taiwan as a strategic military target, both offensively and defensively. In addition to its tactically advantageous position, Taiwan is home to a large economy and a robust manufacturing industry, fostered by reallocation of production by American companies to offshore markets. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest microchip manufacturer, headquartered in Hsinchu, comprises approximately 60% of the global market. The U.S. military, the most sophisticated and expensive in the world, is almost entirely run by commercial off-the-shelf devices supplied by Taiwan. Chinese leadership, therefore, perceives Taiwanese annexation as a significant step in regional dominance and global leadership.

The United States has displayed a murky policy regarding China and Taiwan. Officially, U.S. leadership adheres to the One China policy, which recognizes Taiwan as Chinese territory. However, American officials maintain diplomacy with Taiwan openly, which has drawn vehement condemnation from the Chinese government. Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s president, visited the United States to meet with U.S. Representatives including Speaker Kevin McCarthy, inciting the Chinese military display around the island in April. A similar reaction was seen when U.S. Representative Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House at the time, visited Taiwan in August, 2022.

Sino-American conflict over Taiwan has become a focal point of international politics. Honduras, a long-time ally of Taiwan, severed ties with the democratic nation in favor of China in March, 2023, furthering Taipei’s isolation on the world stage. The Latin American country joined Panama, Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, and El Salvador in cutting diplomacy with Taiwan since the election of Tsai Ing-wen in 2016. These countries represent part of China’s growing network of allies and affiliated states who look to the Communist nation as the world’s preeminent super power. 

Latin America is one of many regions in which China has engaged in geopolitics. On April 5, 2023, Emmanuel Macron, the French president since 2017, traveled to Beijing to discuss China’s prominent role in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Two weeks prior, on March 25, Chinese president Xi Jinping met with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow to affirm their nation’s cooperation, particularly in regard to American interventionism abroad. Earlier in the month, on March 6, leaders from Iran and Saudi Arabia, bitter rivals in the Middle East, met in China and established diplomatic ties 4 days later.

As China becomes more influential in the international community, American global supremacy is thrown into question. Prominent American allies, such as South Korea and Israel, had their confidence in the U.S. shaken in light of a Department of Defense leak in early April, which revealed classified intelligence on the war in Ukraine. The documents, some marked as secret, were released on the online platforms Discord and Telegram and reportedly contain errors, such as an incorrect Ukrainian death toll. Nonetheless, the leak threatens U.S. security during a period of heightened American interest in counterintelligence efforts. Additionally, TikTok, a social media platform owned by Chinese technology company ByteDance, has faced scrutiny by U.S. Congress over cybersecurity risks and the ramifications of TikTok usage, particularly among children. Though the company’s CEO, Shou Zi Chew, insisted on TikTok’s safety, American legislators, both Democrat and Republican, remained unconvinced. Further heightening tensions, in early February, 2023, a Chinese surveillance balloon entered American airspace in Alaska before traversing the continental United States and ultimately being shot down by U.S. fighter jets over the Atlantic Ocean.

The United States faces a host of domestic issues, as well as foreign. Donald Trump, the former U.S. president, was arrested in Manhattan on 34 charges of falsifying business records, where he pleaded not guilty on April 4, 2023. Alvin Bragg, the prosecuting district attorney, has been criticized for pursuing a political case against the 45th president and his ties to George Soros, a prominent benefactor for progressive agendas worldwide. America’s largest metropolitan area, New York City, reported its highest crime rate since 2006, when statistics became accessible to the public. Other U.S. cities, such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and Philadelphia, also announced drastic increases in violent crime and mass shooting rates in the nation since 2017 dwarf those of years prior. Economically, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, reported a 5% inflation rate for March, 2023, the lowest in 2 years, but anticipated recession in the latter half of 2023. Demographically, the United States has an aging population. Between 2011 and 2021, the portion of citizens aged 65 years or older grew from 13.27% to 16.68% and birth rates in the U.S. dropped by nearly 20% from 2007 to 2020. U.S. Congress reflects this trend with an average age of 58, 20 years older than the national average of 38, and Joe Biden, the current president, was elected at age 78, the oldest chief executive in American history.

The U.S. remains more powerful and influential than any nation on Earth. Historically, however, vast and dominant civilizations deteriorate due to external and internal factors working in conjunction; precisely America’s circumstance. Whether the United States rises or falls in time, the current era presents a change of the established world order.